JD Vance leads GOP 2028 race as Trump's influence slips: Polls
WASHINGTON, DC: Vice President JD Vance is sitting comfortably at the front of the Republican pack for 2028, with fresh polling showing him outpacing a crowded field of GOP heavyweights.
A YouGov survey of 2,189 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, conducted between April 8 and April 13, found that 63% said they would consider voting for Vance in their state’s primary or caucus. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, adjusted for weighting.
Trailing him are Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 42% and Florida Gov Ron DeSantis at 35%. Further back sit Donald Trump Jr at 31% and Texas Sen Ted Cruz at 26%.
JD Vance’s edge
The Ohio Republican pulls especially strong support from older voters. A striking 76% of those aged 65 and above said they would consider backing him, along with 67% of voters aged 45 to 64.
He also runs surprisingly even across gender lines, clocking 62% support among men and 63% among women, while drawing 67% among white voters.
Younger voters aren’t exactly swooning. Vance posts 44% among those aged 18 to 29, but even that “dip” still leaves him competitive across the field. The only candidate to outperform him with that group is Trump Jr, who leads the youth lane at 49%.
Rubio, meanwhile, holds onto second place thanks to strong support among older voters and the college-educated. He has the support of 58% of seniors and 51% of degree holders, respectively.
DeSantis, landing in third, finds his sweet spot among voters aged 45 to 64 at 48%, but struggles with younger voters, pulling just 8% in the 18–29 bracket.
Trump Jr, in fourth, leans heavily on his youth advantage. His 49% support among younger voters puts him well ahead of rivals in that slice, but the enthusiasm fades fast with age, dropping to 23% among voters 65 and older.
Further down the list, the field gets crowded quickly. Robert F Kennedy Jr draws 15%, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence at 14% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 13%. Sen Tim Scott lands at 10%, while former Rep Tulsi Gabbard trails at 8%.
A second tier, including Virginia Gov Glenn Youngkin and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, sits at 7%, with Georgia Gov Brian Kemp at 4%.
Donald Trump’s numbers slide as cracks show in the base
Hovering over the early 2028 chatter are the cooling numbers of President Trump himself.
A separate YouGov/The Economist poll earlier this month found Trump’s net approval sinking to a new low of -23 points. Just 35% of Americans approve of his handling of the presidency, while 58% disapprove.
That put him well below where former President Joe Biden stood at a similar point, with a net approval of -6. It’s also a sharper drop than Trump’s own first-term standing at the same stage, when he posted a net -11.
According to The Hill, the dip didn't just come from critics, but was driven in part by softening support within Trump’s own base. The shift came amid an escalation of US military action in Iran, a partial government shutdown, and a slide in the stock market.
