Marco Rubio’s 2028 presidential odds jump to 7 percent after Nicolas Maduro’s capture in Venezuela

Venezuela strike capturing Nicolas Maduro boosted Secretary of State Marco Rubio, raising his 2028 odds 3% after Donald Trump praised him
PUBLISHED JAN 5, 2026
Marco Rubio played a key role in the Venezuela strike, and Polymarket now shows a rise in his standing in the 2028 presidential race (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)
Marco Rubio played a key role in the Venezuela strike, and Polymarket now shows a rise in his standing in the 2028 presidential race (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)


WASHINGTON, DC: The strike in Venezuela that led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro was celebrated in the country, but the outcome extended beyond Venezuela. The operation also delivered a political boost to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Reports say Rubio’s chances in the presidential race increased by 3 percent in the two days following Maduro’s capture.

Rubio was involved in the operation, which took place on Friday, January 2. His name has also been floated as a potential candidate in the 2028 presidential election, alongside JD Vance, both of whom Donald Trump has highlighted during interviews.

LA MALBAIE, CANADA - MARCH 13: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrives before a bilateral meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada Melanie Joly at the Fairmont Manoir Richelieu for the G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting on March 13, 2025 in La Malbaie, Canada. The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven major democracies - Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, will meet on March 12-14. (Photo by Andrej Ivanov/Getty Images)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrives before a bilateral meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada Melanie Joly at the Fairmont Manoir Richelieu for the G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting on March 13, 2025 in La Malbaie, Canada. The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven major democracies - Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, will meet on March 12-14 (Andrej Ivanov/Getty Images)

Marco Rubio climbs in 2028 presidential odds after Venezuela op

According to Polymarket, Marco Rubio’s chances of winning the 2028 Republican primary have nearly doubled over the past two days. His presidential odds rose from 4 percent to 7 percent following the US operation that led to the capture of Venezuela’s leader, Nicolas Maduro.

A post shared on Monday, January 5, showed the latest standings in the 2028 presidential race, highlighting leading candidates, recent gains, and rising contenders. Rubio appeared alongside JD Vance as a candidate gaining momentum.

Vice President JD Vance waves to the audience during a Turning Point USA event at the Pavilion at Ole Miss at the University of Mississippi, on October 29, 2025 in Oxford, Mississippi. The visit marks the first stop on the “This Is the Turning Point” campus tour, led by Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk. (Photo by Jonathan Ernst-Pool/Getty Images)
Vice President JD Vance waves to the audience during a Turning Point USA event at the Pavilion at Ole Miss at the University of Mississippi, on October 29, 2025 in Oxford, Mississippi. The visit marks the first stop on the 'This Is the Turning Point' campus tour, led by Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk (Jonathan Ernst-Pool/Getty Images)

Vance is currently leading the 2028 presidential race with 31 percent support, holding a clear advantage. Gavin Newsom is in second place with 18 percent, creating a 13-point gap. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ranks third with 8 percent, followed closely by Marco Rubio at 7 percent.

Trump rounds out the top five with 3 percent.

Marco Rubio’s Venezuela role puts him in 2028 Republican spotlight

Marco Rubio played an active role in the Venezuela airstrike alongside President Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth. Trump shared several candid images on social media showing moments as he watched the live broadcast of the strike. The posts highlighted Rubio’s involvement and put a spotlight on his influence in high-profile national security operations.

As the president’s interim national security adviser, Rubio has frequently been mentioned by Trump when questions arise about potential candidates for the 2028 presidential election following the end of Trump’s second term. Over time, Trump has consistently cited two names — Rubio and JD Vance.

U.S. President Donald Trump talks to the media before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on September 21, 2025 in Washington, DC. President Trump will travel to Arizona to pay tribute to conservative activist Charlie Kirk at a memorial and return to the White House this evening. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump talks to the media before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on September 21, 2025 in Washington, DC. President Trump will travel to Arizona to pay tribute to conservative activist Charlie Kirk at a memorial and return to the White House this evening (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

According to Vanity Fair, Rubio has made it clear that he would not run if Vance enters the race. “If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio said.

He emphasized that his priority is party unity and ensuring a strong Republican candidate, even if it means stepping aside.

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