Republicans eye California shutout as Democrats risk locking themselves out of race, poll says
WASHINGTON, DC: The race for California governor is shaping up as a potential setback for the state’s dominant Democratic Party, with new polling suggesting Republicans could seize a decisive advantage.
A survey commissioned by the California Democratic Party and conducted by Evitarus shows Steve Hilton leading with 16% support, followed by Chad Bianco at 14%.
Under California’s “top-two” primary system, the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election, raising the possibility of an all-Republican contest in November.
Poll suggests Democrats split the vote
Leading Democratic contenders, including Rep Eric Swalwell, former Rep Katie Porter, and activist Tom Steyer, are tied at 10% each.
The fragmented field featuring eight prominent Democratic candidates has diluted support, with no clear frontrunner emerging and no indication that candidates plan to drop out ahead of the June primary.
If Hilton and Bianco maintain their lead and secure the top two spots in the primary, Democrats would be entirely shut out of the general election, effectively guaranteeing a Republican governor in the heavily Democratic state.
Such an outcome would mark a dramatic political shift in California, the most populous state in the US.
Despite current trends, the race remains fluid. The Evitarus poll found that 24% of voters were still undecided, leaving room for late momentum shifts.
Earlier polling in December by FM3 showed a tighter race, with Hilton narrowly ahead and Bianco and Swalwell tied close behind, underscoring the volatility of the contest.
There’s a real chance Democrats split the vote between their many candidates for California governor, lock themselves out of the top-two election and gift the victory to Republicans. Would be one of the biggest self-owns in party history. https://t.co/2HgD6SzkUs
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 24, 2026
Warning signs for Democrats
Political analysts say the dynamics pose a serious risk for Democrats. NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur warned that the party could effectively “lock themselves out” of the general election by splitting their vote.
If that scenario plays out, it could reportedly amount to one of the most significant political miscalculations in recent party history.
