Rubio leads JD Vance in 2028 GOP poll, reshaping Trump succession race

WASHINGTON, DC: In a new Republican primary survey is adding fresh intrigue to the party’s 2028 succession battle after Marco Rubio unexpectedly pulled ahead of Vice President JD Vance by a wide margin. 

The results suggest Republican voters may be rethinking who should carry the MAGA coalition into the post-Trump era, with one of Trump’s most loyal cabinet figures now emerging as an early favorite.

New poll shows Rubio pulling away

According to a new AtlasIntel survey conducted between May 4 and May 7 and released Tuesday, May 12, more than 2,000 American adults preferred Rubio over Vance for the top of the hypothetical 2028 Republican presidential field.

Among Republican voters surveyed, 45.4% named Rubio as their preferred nominee, giving him a lead of nearly 16 percentage points over Vance, who finished second with 29.6%.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in third with 11.2%, while entrepreneur-turned-politician Vivek Ramaswamy drew minimal support.

Another segment of Republican voters said their preferred candidate wasn’t listed.

The numbers represent a sharp reversal from AtlasIntel’s previous national survey, where Vance had held a comfortable advantage over Rubio.

That swing is already fueling speculation that the Republican race to succeed Trump may be far more competitive and unpredictable than expected.

Public image shapes Presidential race

The survey also tested how both men are viewed outside the Republican base.

Rubio’s national image remains mixed, but he currently performs better than Vance among the broader electorate.

Vance, who has become one of the administration’s most outspoken political fighters, posted significantly weaker favorability numbers in the same polling.

Inside Republican circles, however, both men continue to be viewed as central to the party’s future, especially with Trump still avoiding any formal succession endorsement.

President Trump has repeatedly kept both men in the spotlight without publicly backing either one.

At a recent White House gathering, Trump playfully asked supporters, “Who likes JD Vance? Who likes Marco Rubio?” before joking that the pair sounded “like a good ticket.”

He quickly clarified that his comments did not amount to an endorsement but the remark added to growing speculation that he sees both men as potential heirs to his movement.

Trump previously suggested Vance was “most likely” the natural MAGA successor because of his role as vice president, but in the same breath floated the idea that Rubio could work alongside him “in some form.”

According to reports, Trump has even privately tested the idea of a Rubio-Vance or Vance-Rubio ticket during conversations with donors and guests at the White House.

Two very different paths to the top

Vance’s rise inside Republican politics has been fast and dramatic.

The Ohio Republican entered the Senate only recently before being tapped by Trump as his 2024 running mate.

Since becoming vice president, he has been sent on several politically sensitive assignments abroad, helping raise his foreign policy profile while solidifying his position inside Trump’s inner circle.

Rubio’s path has been longer and more complicated.

The former Florida senator once ran directly against Trump in the bitter 2016 Republican primary before suspending his campaign after falling short. 

Over time, however, Rubio rebuilt his standing within Trump’s orbit and eventually joined the administration as secretary of state in 2025.

Since then, Rubio’s profile has grown significantly. In recent weeks alone, he has taken on increasingly visible diplomatic assignments, including meetings at Vatican City and talks with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.