US exit will give Iran effective control of Strait of Hormuz: Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis

Jim Mattis said if US declared victory, Iran 'would now say they own the Strait [of Hormuz]. You’d see a tax for every ship that goes through'
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Former US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has painted a bleak picture of the future of the Strait of Hormuz if US declares victory in the Iran and withdraws from there (Getty Images)
Former US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has painted a bleak picture of the future of the Strait of Hormuz if US declares victory in the Iran and withdraws from there (Getty Images)

WASHINGTON, DC: Former US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis warned that ending the war in the Middle East now would in effect hand Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies pass.

Speaking on Monday, March 23, at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, Mattis said Tehran would quickly move to assert dominance over the passage if Washington stepped back from the conflict.

Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026 (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Mattis says Iran would claim the strait

“Iran, right now, if we declared victory, they would now say they own the strait. You’d see a tax for every ship that goes through,” Mattis said.

“We’re in a tough spot, ladies and gentlemen. I can’t identify a lot of options,” he added, underscoring the strategic bind facing the United States and its allies.

Mattis, who served as defence secretary during President Donald Trump’s first term before resigning in 2019, said the risks of disengagement were especially high given Iran’s ability to threaten maritime traffic even after suffering major military losses.

U.S. President Donald Trump listens during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on February 26, 2025 in Washington, DC. Trump is holding the first Cabinet meeting of his second term, joined by Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump listens during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on February 26, 2025 in Washington, DC (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Trump pauses Iran strikes, oil prices ease

His remarks came as Trump announced a five-day pause in strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, with the US-Israeli war on Iran entering its fourth week.

Iran’s retaliation against Israel and Gulf states has pushed the Strait of Hormuz to closure, sparking renewed fears over energy supplies and driving up oil prices. The price of crude later eased, with a barrel falling to $90 after Trump’s announcement on Monday, March 23.

The administration is also pressing allies to support efforts to reopen the crucial shipping lane. On Sunday, March 22, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, said partner countries were beginning to shift towards backing such a move.

“We are seeing our allies come around as they should, but at the same time, the president is not going to stand for this regime, as it has threatened and tried for five decades to hold the world’s energy supplies hostage under its genocidal intent,” Waltz said on CBS’s Face the Nation.

This image provided by U.S. Central Command shows the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81) firing a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) in support of Operation Epic Fury, on Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026. (U.S. Navy via AP)
This image provided by U.S. Central Command shows the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81) firing a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) in support of Operation Epic Fury, on Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026. (U.S. Navy via AP)

Despite losses, Iran still poses threat at sea

The US military has inflicted severe damage on Iran’s naval capacity. In an update on Monday, US Central Command said American forces had damaged or destroyed more than 140 Iranian vessels.

But Mattis cautioned that Tehran still retained the ability to strike ships moving through the strait, even with its fleet badly degraded.

“And they’ve got anti-ship cruise missiles that could be fired off the back of a pickup truck that can go 100 miles. So there’s the problem,” he said.

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