Bessent predicts oil could plunge to $40-$50 after Iran conflict: ‘We are in the liftoff phase’

WASHINGTON, DC: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Saturday, September 5, predicted that oil prices could fall to between $40 and $50 a barrel once the Iran conflict ends, while arguing that the US economy is gaining momentum ahead of the November midterm elections.

In an interview with Lara Trump on Fox News, Bessent described the economy as strong and said increased energy production could eventually push prices sharply lower. Bessent made a similar forecast on Friday, September 4, in an interview with Steve Bannon, saying the oil market could become oversupplied once the conflict is over.

Bessent says oil supply could drive prices down

During the interview, Lara Trump asked Bessent to assess the economy and explain what message he would send voters as the midterms approach, noting that economic conditions are expected to be a central issue in the elections.

Bessent pointed to wage growth, job growth and inflation as signs of strength before turning to the outlook for energy prices. “As I said on prices, that wages are up. Prices are actually core inflation is very close to the Fed's 2% target, and we have an energy supply shock, and that is going to end,” Bessent said.

Bessent then predicted that oil prices could fall substantially once the current disruption ends. “And I actually think on the other side of this, on the other side of this, we're actually going to see oil prices $40 or $50 because there's so much supply coming on. It's just constricted right now,” he said.

Bessent also said he believes the broader economy is accelerating, citing what he described as a period of increased productivity. “So my message is underlying economy is very strong, job growth is strong, wage growth is strong,” Bessent said. “I believe as we sit here now, the economy is accelerating.”

He added that he expects the US to emerge from the Iran conflict with a safer environment and said, “we are in the liftoff phase.”

Bessent says Iran oil restrictions are limiting supply

Bessent also discussed the administration’s efforts to restrict Iran’s oil exports, saying sanctions and a blockade were limiting the amount of Iranian crude available for purchase. He said there were about 30 million barrels of Iranian crude remaining that China had not bought and argued that the supply would eventually run out.

Bessent first forecasts $40-$50 oil in Bannon interview

Bessent made a similar prediction during an interview with Steve Bannon just a day earlier, linking a potential decline in oil prices to the end of the Iran conflict. “We’re going to be very much oversupplied in the oil market after this. We can see $50, $40 crude maybe, just because there’s so much coming online,” Bessent said.

Bessent did not provide a timeframe for when the conflict could end. The oil prices, however, remained elevated following military strikes between the US and Iran earlier in the week. Brent crude was trading above $95 a barrel on Friday, September 4, while West Texas Intermediate was around $91.