CNN’s Harry Enten reveals ‘hidden Democratic advantage’ that could be ‘truly frightening’ for GOP

WASHINGTON, DC: CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten revealed on Thursday, November 20, that there is a “hidden Democratic advantage” that could aid the party in the 2026 midterms and could be “truly frightening” for the Republican Party.

The chief data analyst highlighted new Marquette University Law School polling showing that Democrats held a +5 advantage on a generic congressional ballot. The numbers also showed that among those certain to vote, the party had an even greater advantage over the GOP (+9 points).

Polls show Democrats holding turnout advantage heading into 2026 midterms

Harry Enten said, “These numbers should be truly frightening to Republicans,” while noting that the Marquette figures match other polls showing “huge Democratic enthusiasm” leading up to the midterms.

He added, “What this suggests is Democrats are far more likely to turn out at this point. A nine-point advantage, going from 5 to 9, that is A+, two thumbs up, great news for Democrats.” Meanwhile, early-cycle midterm polling also showed Democrats were “more likely to turn out and vote” in next year’s elections, a shift from the previous five midterms, when Republicans were more certain to vote than Democrats, according to Enten.

Enten later pointed out that polls had underestimated 2025 Democratic wins by New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill (who won by +8 points) and Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger (who won by +5 points).

He said, “You combine that with the generic ballot poll that we saw from [the] Marquette University poll, Republicans should be running scared. Democrats should be ecstatic because if this polling holds, it will be a huge November 2026 for Democrats.”

Federal court blocks Texas from using new GOP-drawn congressional map in midterms

A three-judge panel in an El Paso district court issued a 2–1 ruling on November 18 blocking Texas from using its new congressional maps and directing the state to revert to the 2021 redistricting map for the 2026 midterm elections.

The ruling is a major setback for Donald Trump and Republicans, who had made Texas central to a national effort to redraw maps ahead of the midterms.

Judge Jeffrey Brown wrote the court’s opinion and noted that the groups challenging the 2025 map had also previously contested the 2021 map on discrimination grounds. However, Brown stated that there are several reasons why reverting to the 2021 map is the most legally sound and reasonable solution.

However, despite this, Brown stated that there are multiple reasons why reverting to the 2021 map is the most legally sound and reasonable solution.

"First, he noted, this remedy is the one requested by the Plaintiff Groups. Second, the 2021 Map was created by the Legislature, and courts generally favor legislative-drawn maps over judicial ones. Third, he pointed out that the State has already used the 2021 Map in two previous congressional elections and continues to use it in an ongoing special election," he said.

Meanwhile, Governor Greg Abbott and Republican lawmakers disagreed with the ruling, and said that both the 2021 and 2025 maps comply with the law and were properly enacted.

Furthermore, Abbott argued that the 2025 map more accurately reflects Texans’ conservative voting patterns, including in districts with Hispanic majorities.