JD Vance dominates early 2028 projections, holding 31 percent to Newsom’s 17 percent: Poll

JD Vance says he’s focused on midterms, but Erika Kirk backs him for 2028 presidency ticket
PUBLISHED DEC 29, 2025
JD Vance and Gavin Newsom are gaining early traction as potential front-runners within their parties ahead of the 2028 presidential race (Getty Images)
JD Vance and Gavin Newsom are gaining early traction as potential front-runners within their parties ahead of the 2028 presidential race (Getty Images)


WASHINGTON, DC: The 2028 presidential race is already starting to generate buzz, even though the election is still years away. JD Vance is emerging as a strong early favorite in the race for the 48th presidency. According to prediction market Polymarket, Vance currently leads the field with 31 percent odds, based on data released on Monday, December 29.

On the other hand, California Governor Gavin Newsom is also gaining attention as a potential contender, but not like Vance. Polymarket places Newsom at 17 percent, putting him behind Vance in the early poll.

Vice President JD Vance waves to the audience during a Turning Point USA event at the Pavilion at Ole Miss at the University of Mississippi, on October 29, 2025 in Oxford, Mississippi. The visit marks the first stop on the “This Is the Turning Point” campus tour, led by Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk. (Photo by Jonathan Ernst-Pool/Getty Images)
 JD Vance waves to the audience during a Turning Point USA event at the Pavilion at Ole Miss at the University of Mississippi, on October 29, 2025 in Oxford, Mississippi ( Jonathan Ernst-Pool/Getty Images)

JD Vance and his plans for presidential run 

JD Vance is keeping his focus on the present, even as questions grow about the 2028 presidential race. During an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, the 41-year-old was asked directly whether he has thought about running for president in 2028 to succeed Donald Trump.

Vance said he does not plan to seriously consider the idea until after the 2026 midterm elections. “I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections, sure, but I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now. And my job is to do it,” Vance said.

He explained that looking too far ahead can distract leaders from their current responsibilities. Vance added that thinking about 'what comes next' often makes someone 'worse at the job you have,' which is why he says his attention remains on serving as vice president.



Vance also stressed the importance of the upcoming midterm elections, warning that a power shift could undo recent progress. “I really want us to win the midterms, because if the Democrats get in power, they’re going to try to screw up a lot of the great things the president of the United States has done over the past 10 months,” Vance said.

“So we’re gonna win the midterms, we’re gonna do everything we can to win the midterms.” He noted that any serious discussion about a presidential run would come later. Vance said he plans to speak directly with Trump once the midterms are over.

“After that I’m going to sit down with the president of the United States and talk to him about it,” he said. “If we do a good job, the politics will take care of itself. If we do a terrible job, the politics will take care of itself in the other direction, so I’m just going to focus on the job that I have," he concluded.

Who supports JD Vance in the 2028 presidential run?

Donald Trump praised members of his administration, naming JD Vance and Marco Rubio as possible future leaders. He described them as 'great people' in his cabinet who could emerge as candidates.

Outside the administration, Vance has received backing from conservative activist circles. Erika Kirk, the CEO of Turning Point USA, stated that the organization plans to support him. “We are going to get my husband’s friend, JD Vance, elected as 48 in the most resounding way possible,” Erika Kirk said at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest conference in Phoenix.



Polling data also reflects  Vance’s growing support within the Republican Party. According to Race to the White House’s national polling average, Vance holds more than 45 percent support among potential Republican contenders. Marco Rubio, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr, and Nikki Haley follow behind with significantly lower numbers.

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