Rand Paul says Iran war, high oil prices could spell ‘disastrous’ midterms for GOP

WASHINGTON, DC: Sen Rand Paul warned that Republicans could face a “disastrous” outcome in the 2026 midterm elections, citing rising oil prices and the ongoing US conflict with Iran as potential political liabilities.

Speaking in an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business on Tuesday, March 10, the Kentucky Republican said he believes economic pressures linked to the war could overshadow concerns about divisions within the Republican Party.

Rand Paul says oil prices could drive voter backlash

Asked by Bartiromo how he expects the midterms to play out and whether internal party splits could hurt Republicans, Paul said the bigger threat lies in rising energy prices tied to the conflict.

“I don’t think a split party is the problem,” Paul said. “I think high oil prices will be a problem.”

Paul argued that if US military operations against Iran continue and push oil prices above $100 per barrel, voters could punish Republicans at the ballot box. “If we are still bombing Iran with kinetic action, people don’t want to call it war, but if there’s still kinetic action that causes oil to be over $100, I think you’re gonna see a disastrous election,” he said.

Paul questions Trump administration case for Iran war

Paul also criticized the Trump administration for what he described as inconsistent explanations for the conflict with Iran. 

During the interview, Bartiromo referenced a Pentagon briefing in which Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would be the “most intense” day of US strikes against Iran.

Asked whether the administration’s justification for the war had been sufficient, Paul said he did not find the arguments convincing. “There have been many different reasons floated, but none of them, I think, have been very convincing,” he said.

Paul cited several explanations offered by officials, including freeing the Iranian people from oppression and preventing Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, but argued that those rationales raise broader questions about US foreign policy.

“If our foreign policy is to free oppressed people, I’m not sure where war would end,” he said.

He also questioned repeated claims that Iran was close to obtaining a nuclear weapon. “You can take clips from the ’90s all the way through the present of people arguing that they’re a week away from nuclear weapons,” Paul said.

“We were also told their nuclear weapons were obliterated, and now we’re told their nuclear weapons are just moments away from being a bomb.”

Paul concluded that military action should only be used as a last resort. “War should be the last resort, not the first resort. A war of choice is not my choice,” he said.