Rubio outperforms Vance in 2028 matchups against Harris, AOC and other Democrats, poll finds

WASHINGTON, DC: Secretary of State Marco Rubio outperforms Vice President JD Vance in several hypothetical 2028 matchups against leading Democrats, according to a new Emerson College poll released Thursday. Rubio holds stronger numbers than Vance against former Vice President Kamala Harris and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), while both Republicans trail California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Emerson College Polling surveyed 1,000 likely voters between August 16 and 17, with a credibility interval similar to a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey offers an early look at how Rubio and Vance stack up against leading Democratic contenders, even though the 2028 presidential race is still more than two years away.

Rubio leads Vance against Harris and AOC3

Pitted against Harris and Ocasio-Cortez, Rubio tops both by the same 48%-43% margin, the Emerson College National Poll showed.

Meanwhile, Vance bests Ocasio-Cortez 46%-44% but comes up short against Harris by four percentage points, 49%-45%.

In a head-to-head presidential race against Newsom, Rubio garners 46% to Vance's 44% backing. However, both Republicans trail the California governor, who nets 49% support against Vance and 48% against Rubio. 

The poll found that Rubio performs better than Vance on multiple hypothetical 2028 ballot tests, while Buttigieg, Ossoff and Newsom perform strongest among the Democratic candidates.

Ossoff and Buttigieg lead both Republicans

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) are the strongest-performing Democrats when matched against Rubio and Vance.

Ossoff has been in the national spotlight lately after he called out White House aide Natalie Harp at a Georgia rally and accused Trump of putting personal interests ahead of his presidential duties.

Right now, Ossoff holds a three-point lead over Rubio, 47% to 44%, and he's up by five points against Vance, 49% to 44%.

He's busy running for reelection in Georgia, facing Republican Rep. Mike Collins in what is shaping up to be one of the tightest Senate races of the 2026 midterms.

Despite the rumors swirling about a 2028 presidential bid, Ossoff keeps batting them away, dismissing it as “fantasy football.” He insists he's focused on winning the midterms, nothing else. 

Buttigieg, who has recently campaigned with several Democrats in key 2026 midterm races, is ahead of both Republicans by a 49%-44% margin.

The new poll results breathe more life into the debate among Republicans over their future standard-bearer for 2028.

Earlier this month, The Washington Post revealed that Trump told donors in private, “at the end of the day, we need to elect JD” in 2028. When pressed about this later in the Oval Office, Trump dialed back the remark. He praised Vance as “great,” but shrugged off talk of endorsements, saying it's “way too early to even be thinking about” that.

He's floated the idea before, pairing Vance and Rubio together as a “dream team.” Still, he's kept everyone guessing about which one he'd want leading the ticket.

Rubio has said he will not seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 if Vance decides to run, while Vance has said he will make a decision on a potential 2028 campaign after the November midterm elections.