Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn nearly tied in Tennessee special election: poll

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE: A new poll suggested a tighter-than-expected race for Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, with Republican Matt Van Epps holding a slim lead over Democrat Aftyn Behn ahead of the December 2 special election.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released on Wednesday, November 26, shows Van Epps sitting at 48 percent support compared to Behn’s 46 percent among likely voters. While the district has long been considered a conservative bastion, the single-digit margin highlights the intensity of the race to replace former Rep Mark Green (R-Tenn).

Republican maintains edge in tight contest

Van Epps, the former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, retains a slight advantage when undecided voters are pushed to choose a side.

"When factoring in undecideds... Van Epps sits at 49 percent while Behn sits at 47 percent," the polling data indicates.

The numbers fall well within the survey's 3.9 percent margin of error, effectively tying the two candidates as they enter the final stretch.

The district, which stretches from the Kentucky border to Alabama and includes parts of Nashville, was vacated by Mark Green earlier this year when he resigned to pursue private sector opportunities.

Democrats pour resources into traditionally Republican district

Despite the district's history as a "red stronghold," Democrats have invested heavily in the race, sensing an opportunity to flip the seat following victories in other special elections.

Behn, a state representative, has engaged high-profile surrogates and poured money into the region in hopes of an "impressive overperformance."

The polling reveals a stark generational and method-of-voting divide. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that turnout mechanics will likely decide the winner.

"Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%," Kimball said.

Age also plays a critical role, with voters under 40 reportedly breaking 64% for Behn, while Van Epps commands 61% of the vote among those over 70.

Economy remains the top issue for voters

While Democrats focus on turnout, the political environment reportedly remains favorable to Republican messaging on the economy.

The poll found that the economy was the "most important issue" for 38 percent of respondents, far outpacing other concerns.

Housing affordability, health care, and "threats to democracy" trailed significantly, garnering roughly 13 to 15 percent each.