CNN's Enten says Trump's GOP is 'chipping away' at Black vote as Dem lead hits lowest since 2006

WASHINGTON, DC: CNN's data analyst Harry Enten is pointing to a notable shift in voting patterns, saying President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are beginning to erode a long-standing Democratic advantage among Black voters.

Enten, while decoding the numbers on Thursday, April 30, said that the change could have real and long-term electoral consequences.

Harry Enten admits Black people back Trump

Breaking down recent numbers, Enten highlighted a gradual but meaningful uptick in Trump’s support among African-American voters.

“President Trump and the Republican Party are chipping away at the long-term advantage that Democrats have had with Black voters,” he said.

He noted that Trump’s approval among Black voters has risen compared to his first term. “At this point in term one, he was at 12%, he’s up to 16% now,” he said.

While calling the increase modest, Enten stressed its significance, saying, “You say this isn’t that big of a shift, but Republicans absolutely love the shift because Democrats have had such a long-term advantage.”

Enten made it clear this isn’t a one-off change, but part of a larger pattern. He pointed to party identification data as especially striking.

“Democrats had a 63-point advantage that has absolutely fallen,” he explained, describing a “double-digit shift” toward Republicans.

According to Enten, the current Democratic lead among Black voters is now smaller than at any point between 2006 and 2021.

Real-time impact on electoral results

The implications, Enten suggested, could be significant, particularly in closely contested states.

“In a lot of these tight races, places like Georgia, this type of movement could have major ramifications,” he said, adding it could help Republicans “get over the top” in some Southern battlegrounds.

Enten also pointed to the 2024 election as a turning point, arguing Republicans are maintaining, not losing, the ground they gained. 

He added that there’s little evidence Democrats have regained lost support.

“Are Democrats gaining back any of that ground? Nope.”

Despite Democrats still holding a clear lead among Black voters, Enten emphasized that even small shifts can matter in modern elections.

For both parties, the data signals a changing political landscape, one where traditional voting blocs may no longer be as predictable as before.