CNN analyst hails JD Vance’s historic lead in 2028 GOP primary: ‘Like no one else’

WASHINGTON, DC: This week, CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, pointed out just how far ahead Vice President JD Vance is in the early 2028 GOP primary polls.

He called Vance’s lead in the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary for 2028 not just impressive but pretty rare when you look back at past races.

Enten discussed this on Monday, breaking down prediction market odds and early state polls, all of which put Vance way ahead of the rest of the Republican field.

‘JD Vance is running well ahead of the field,’ says Harry Enten

Enten began by telling anchor Sara Sidner, “I will just note it is never, never too early to talk about this because these guys are running already, even if they haven’t formally declared.”

“They’re already running, and JD Vance is running well ahead of the field. I mean, take a look here. Top chances to be the 2028 GOP press nominee, the prediction market odds. Look at this: JD Vance, 48% chance. Nobody else is even close,” said Harry Enten.

While talking about Marco Rubio, the current Secretary of State, Enten said, “Marco Rubio is way back at 12%, and no one else is even above a 5% chance of being the 2028 GOP nominee.”

“JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field, they’re like going around in go-karts at this point. I mean, that’s really what we’re looking at. JD Vance is the clear, heavy favorite at this time.”

Harry Enten compares JD Vance to earlier sitting VPs

During the segment, Enten pointed out that vice presidents usually do pretty well when they run for their party’s nomination.

He mentioned Kamala Harris, Al Gore, George HW Bush, Hubert Humphrey, and Richard Nixon as examples.

But what really stood out to him was just how big Vance’s lead is this early on. That’s what makes this whole thing interesting.

“Yeah, I mean, just take a look. You just take a look at the last five sitting VPs who ran for the presidency. All were their party’s nominees: Kamala Harris, Al Gore, George HW Bush, Hubert Horatio Humphrey—therefore HHH—and Richard Nixon back in 1960. So, yeah, you put it all together: JD Vance, a heavy favorite. He’s had a very good 2025. We’ll see if he has a very good 2026,” Enten said.

Enten also pointed out that while Vance’s support isn’t above 50% nationwide yet, the predictive weight of a strong showing in New Hampshire historically translates into broader success in the GOP nominating process.

 “Yeah, this number is not coming out of nowhere. And I will note, of course, you know, he’s not at 50% plus yet, but when nobody else is even close, that makes you a clear heavy favorite,” Enten said.

“And there’s a reason why. Just take a look at New Hampshire, right? The first-in-the-nation primary. I mean, take a look here,” continued Enten.

Even as Vance tops early prediction markets, the 2028 Republican field remains fluid.