James Carville tells Bill Maher how Trump’s latest poll numbers might mislead Democrats

WASHINGTON, DC: Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville has warned Democrats not to become complacent, despite polls indicating Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead in the race against former president Donald Trump.

Reflecting the private apprehensions of Harris' supporters, who believe the polls may be overly optimistic, Carville emphasized on 'Real Time With Bill Maher' that she needs to intensify her efforts to secure the Electoral College victory.

James Carville cautions Dems about polls and Donald Trump's under-polling trend

James Carville remarked, “I challenge Democrats with some caution here. First of all, most want to say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College. So when you see a poll that says we two up. Well, that’s actually, you’re one down if the poll is correct.”

“The other thing is Trump traditionally, when he’s on the ballot, chronically under-polls,” he added.

Harris currently leads Trump by less than two points nationally, as per the Real Clear Politics Average, yet the former president is ahead in several key battleground states. Meanwhile, the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a 3.6 percentage point lead.

"Traditionally, with Trump on the ballot… Democrats say, 'Oh James, you’re a Debbie Downer'. I’m not. I’m just telling you, you got to win by three,” the strategist added.

In late August 2020, national polls indicated that President Joe Biden led by 9 points over Trump, yet he secured the victory by only 4.4 percentage points. Back in 2016, Hillary Clinton was ahead by 6.5 points according to polls, and while she won the popular vote by 2 points, she did not win the Electoral College.

In 2020, Trump notably surpassed polling expectations in many battleground states, outperforming the RealClearPolitics aggregate by 4.6 points in Wisconsin, three points in Michigan, and 1.3 points in Pennsylvania, which was particularly concerning for Democrats.

RCP polling shows Donald Trump leading in battleground states

Additionally, the RCP polling aggregate of battleground states, which does not account for toss-ups, currently shows Donald Trump winning all but one of these states, securing him an Electoral College win.

However, it is important to note that pollsters have consistently emphasized that polls within the margin of error are not definitive and could swing in either direction.

Chauncey McLean, the president of Future Forward, a Super PAC supporting Harris, has publicly declared that their internal polling presents a "far less rosy" outlook compared to numerous public polls, the New York Post reported.

“It’s still a very tough race, and that feels consistent with everything we know,” Margie Omero, a partner at the Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies, made a statement to Politico.

Donald Trump leads marginally in recent polls

Recent polls have indicated a marginal lead for the former president, with a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted on Friday, August 23, showing Donald Trump leading by 49% to 46%.

The polling figures are anticipated to change following the withdrawal of independent candidate Robert F Kennedy, who was polling at 4% according to Rasmussen, from the race on Friday, coupled with his endorsement of Trump.

While Rasmussen's findings stand out among recent national polls, the conservative-leaning firm was one of the closest to the final results in 2016, as per The Hill.

Harris is determined to avoid the pitfalls that Hillary Clinton encountered in the 2016 cycle, notably her oversight of Michigan and Wisconsin in the general election.

Internet slammed James Carville

Social media users slammed James Carville's cautionary note to the Democrats after polls showed Kamala Harris in the lead against Donald Trump.

A user wrote, "Carville is crusty has been."

Another added, "Carville hasn’t been relevant since 1992."

One commentator questioned, "Didn't he just go on TV and get caught lying?"

"He is crazy right," a user said talking of Carville.

Someone else said pointed at The Post for calling Carville a "legendary stategist," "“Legendary”. This clown is like a 4 year cicada. Comes out every 4 years just before election time to spew his vitriolic BS."

Another chimed in, "Legendary for what? The man is a partisan hack."

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