JD Vance's grip on the 2028 GOP race weakens as Marco Rubio surges

WASHINGTON, DC: Secretary of State Marco Rubio has overtaken Vice President JD Vance on a major 2028 prediction market, marking the clearest sign yet that the race to become President Donald Trump's potential successor is tightening.

The shift comes as Vance faces weaker polling, criticism from parts of the online right, and renewed scrutiny over his political standing.

Rubio's rise has added fresh momentum to speculation that the Republican contest is becoming far more competitive than it appeared just months ago.

Marco Rubio edges ahead on Kalshi

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has passed Vance on Kalshi as the favorite to win the 2028 presidential election after making up what the report described as a 25-point deficit from this time last year, according to a Daily Beast report published on Saturday, July 25.

While Vance remains the slight favorite to secure the Republican nomination, Rubio now leads the overall general election market with a 16% chance compared with Vance's 15%, the report noted.  

California Gov Gavin Newsom sits third at 11%.

The latest movement comes after months of speculation over who could eventually emerge as Trump's preferred successor.

According to White House sources who spoke to Axios earlier this month, Trump has privately leaned toward backing Vance but has "stopped short" of endorsing him publicly.

Instead, "the president has continued to keep Republicans guessing," the report said, adding that he reportedly even polled guests at a May dinner about whom they would rather see carry the party's banner in 2028.

New polling adds pressure on JD Vance

Prediction market movement has coincided with fresh polling suggesting Vance's advantage inside the Republican Party has narrowed sharply, the report said.

CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten pointed to University of New Hampshire polling showing Vance's lead over Rubio among GOP primary voters shrinking from 46 points in February to just 10 points in July.

The vice president has also endured what the report described as a bruising week after his three-hour interview with podcaster Joe Rogan. 

Critics on the online right rallied behind a "Never Vance" campaign, calling the vice president "unfit" to handle a potential peace deal with Iran.

Vance's allies rejected that criticism, describing it as an "inauthentic," coordinated attack orchestrated by political opponents.

White House tensions fuel succession debate

Rubio's improving position also comes as influential Republican figures continue to line up behind him.

GOP megadonor Ken Griffin, identified in the report as the fifth-largest Republican donor in 2024, has already indicated he would support Rubio over Vance if the secretary of state enters the 2028 race.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reported in May that more than a dozen White House insiders described growing tensions surrounding Vance.

According to the report, Trump privately complained that the former Ohio senator had "never won a difficult race" without his support, criticized the number of vacations Vance had taken and questioned the decision to send him to Pakistan for negotiations aimed at ending the war in Iran.

Together with Rubio's rise on Kalshi and Vance's shrinking polling advantage, those reported frustrations have intensified the competition over who could eventually inherit Trump's political mantle.