'Numbers don't lie': Harry Enten says Republicans should be 'running scared' ahead of midterms

WASHINGTON, DC: CNN's Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten didn't hold back on Thursday as he assessed what Democratic primary turnout could mean for Republicans heading into the November midterm elections. He said President Trump and the Republicans have good reason to be nervous as the November midterms approach. Democratic voters have already turned out in bigger numbers for the primaries than they did in all of 2018, and 2018 was already a powerhouse year for Democrats.

Enten spoke on CNN's 'The Source' with Kaitlan Collins. Collins pointed out that Democratic primary turnout this year has been unusually high, so she asked Enten what this surge really means for the GOP. Enten was clear: These numbers spell trouble for Republicans.

Harry Enten says Democratic turnout is already surpassing 2018 levels

Republicans narrowly control the House 219-212 and the Senate 53-47. The GOP is broadly expected to lose the lower chamber and possibly the Senate, though the latter will likely prove more difficult to achieve. Historically, the party of the incumbent president fares poorly in midterm elections.

“It’s been absolutely bonkers,” Enten replied.

Enten described the turnout data as remarkable in both scale and historical significance.

“This year across all the primaries, it’s 25-plus million, 25-plus million so far. You go back to 2018, which was a bonkers year for Democrats, for the entire primary season.”

“It was just 23 million. So, Democrats are already running ahead of where they were in 2018, which was a year in which they did extremely well in the House races.”

He pointed out that in 2018, Democrats struggled in several Senate races because the map was stacked against them, unlike this year where the playing field looks a lot more even. So, when you compare turnout now, it actually gives Democrats a bigger boost than before.

The turnout comparison has emerged as one of the early indicators being watched ahead of the midterms. Enten previously highlighted Democratic primary participation as a potentially important sign for the party's House prospects, noting that stronger primary turnout has historically been associated with stronger fortunes in the fall.

Kaitlan Collins asks what Trump sees in the latest data

Collins brought up how Trump has often relied on Enten's data when the numbers look good for Republicans, and asked what Trump's team should take from the current situation. Enten didn't sugarcoat his response.

“So, the president quotes you a lot,” she said. “I mean, if you’re the White House or Trump’s political operation and you’re looking at those numbers, what are you seeing so far?”

“I’m running scared. I’m running scared. You know, look, the numbers don’t lie. I tell it like it is.”

“Whatever the numbers say, that’s where I go. You see that turnout high so far on the Democratic side? That, to me, is emblematic of a president of the United States who is deeply underwater.”

His comments put the focus squarely on Democratic voter enthusiasm and what it could mean for Republicans in November. The latest turnout figures are especially notable because Democrats are already ahead of their 2018 primary participation, a year in which the party made major gains in the House.

Democratic turnout puts Republicans under pressure ahead of November

Traditionally, the president's party struggles in midterms, no matter what else is going on.

That pattern hasn't faded, and it's making Republican strategists uneasy. They're already paying close attention to primary turnout numbers, and this historical trend just adds to their worries.

For Democrats, the question now is whether the strong primary participation will translate into comparable turnout when voters head to the polls for the general election. For Republicans, Enten's warning highlights the potential consequences of failing to match that enthusiasm.

With more than 25 million Democratic primary votes already counted, compared with roughly 23 million across the entire 2018 primary season, the numbers have given Democrats an early reason for optimism and Republicans another reason to pay attention.