Trump says Iran's trapped oil will 'explode from within' as US naval blockade chokes Tehran dry

WASHINGTON, DC: President Donald J Trump on Sunday, April 26, warned that Iran’s oil infrastructure is approaching a critical threshold, saying internal pressure from halted exports could trigger system failures “from within” within days.

Speaking on Fox News’ 'The Sunday Briefing', Trump said the ongoing US naval blockade has sharply limited Iran’s ability to move crude, forcing large volumes into storage.

The president said Iran is continuing to produce roughly 2 million barrels of oil per day but is unable to export it at normal levels.

“When you have lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system, if for any reason that line is closed... what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth,” Trump said. He added that such failures could cause long-term damage to oil fields.

Storage capacity reaches absolute critical limit

Energy analysts say Iran’s storage network is under increasing strain. Estimates from industry groups, including Energy Aspects and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), indicate that onshore storage tanks are nearing capacity as exports remain restricted.

Annika Ganzeveld of AEI’s Critical Threats Project said that once storage limits are reached, Iran may be forced to slow or halt production.

Data from FGE NextantECA suggests Iran has around 122 million barrels of storage capacity, but continued output at current levels could exhaust that space within days.

Analysts point to April 29 as a possible inflection point, when storage constraints could require operational changes, including shutting in wells.

Mechanical failure risks permanent reservoir damage

Experts note that abrupt production halts can affect reservoir integrity, particularly in older oil fields. Sudden shutdowns may lead to pressure imbalances that can reduce long-term output capacity.

Trump said he has been briefed that Iran may have “about three days left” before facing such risks.

While industry specialists caution that outcomes depend on field conditions and management responses, they agree that extended storage bottlenecks increase operational stress across production systems.

Some analysts say Iran could turn to alternative measures, including using tankers for temporary offshore storage. However, this option is limited and may not fully offset the volume of crude currently being produced.

Global markets brace for price surge 

The situation has drawn attention in global energy markets already affected by supply disruptions linked to the ongoing 57-day conflict. Analysts estimate that up to 12 million barrels per day have been impacted across the region.

If Iran’s production of approximately 2 million barrels per day is further constrained or removed from global supply, energy prices could face additional upward pressure.

Market participants are closely tracking developments around storage capacity and export conditions.