'1 of 2 things will happen': Trump sets Iran deadline as Netanyahu pushes for new wave of strikes

'Think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good', Trump said
President Donald Trump confirmed he will meet with special envoy Steve Witkoff and advisers at the White House to evaluate Tehran's final response (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
President Donald Trump confirmed he will meet with special envoy Steve Witkoff and advisers at the White House to evaluate Tehran's final response (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

WASHINGTON, DC: In an explosive ultimatum following the February launch of the joint US-Israel military campaign 'Operation Epic Fury', President Donald J Trump has revealed that the United States is standing on a knife-edge between a comprehensive regional truce and catastrophic aerial escalation.

Speaking exclusively to Axios on Saturday, May 23, the president declared there is a "solid 50/50" chance as to whether he will finalize a peace treaty or resume wide-scale airstrikes against the Islamic Republic. 

The president announced he will likely make his final determination by Sunday, bringing weeks of volatile cross-strait negotiations to a head. The White House is treating the deadline as an absolute baseline.

US President Donald Trump, center, during a news conference with Pete Hegseth, US secretary of defense, left, and Marco Rubio, US secretary of state on the second day of the 2025 NATO Summit on June 25, 2025 in The Hague, Netherlands. Among other matters, members are to approve a new defense investment plan that raises the target for defense spending to 5% of GDP. (Photo by Omar Havana/Getty Images)
The administration has established a definitive window to choose between a mediated armistice or a renewed bombing campaign (Omar Havana/Getty Images)

"I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good," Trump stated, confirming he will not allow the current standoff to linger without an immediate resolution.

Envoys review emergency Pakistani mediation draft

The sudden escalation follows a flurry of regional diplomacy culminated by Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been actively mediating between the warring nations. Munir departed Tehran on Saturday after presenting an updated text layout to top Iranian officials.

While a final treaty was not completed on the ground, Pakistani authorities confirmed encouraging progress toward a final understanding, yielding a new draft that Trump intends to personally review during high-stakes weekend meetings.

Jared Kushner, left, and Steve Witkoff, Special Envoy for Peace Missions listen as Vice President JD Vance speaks during a news conference after meeting with representatives from Pakistan and Iran, Sunday, April 12, 2026, in Islamabad, Pakistan. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, Pool)
Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, special envoy for Peace Missions, listen as Vice President JD Vance speaks during a news conference after meeting with representatives from Pakistan and Iran, Sunday, April 12, 2026, in Islamabad, Pakistan (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, Pool)

Trump is scheduled to convene an emergency session later Saturday with his core negotiating team, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with Vice President JD Vance also expected to join.

Simultaneously, the president will conduct a critical conference call with key Gulf leaders, including the heads of state from Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey, to discuss the immediate operational landscape before the Sunday deadline expires.

Tehran outlines terms for ending blockades

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed Saturday that the two sides are in the final stage of discussions regarding a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end the war.

According to the Iranian framework, the preliminary MOU would lay the groundwork for a subsequent 30-to-60-day period of in-depth negotiations to ink a detailed agreement.

Cargo ships, including bulk carriers and general cargo vessels, sit at anchor offshore as a small motorboat passes in the foreground, in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Monday, May 4 , 2026.(Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)
A central pillar of the ongoing negotiations hinges on the permanent elimination of regulatory shipping fees inside international corridors (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

The Iranian ministry stated that the initial memorandum would establish a blueprint to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the crippling US naval blockade, and release billions in frozen Iranian assets.

However, significant friction remains as Trump insists he will only accept a deal that establishes immediate caps on uranium enrichment and dictates the final fate of Iran's existing nuclear stockpile, technical complexities that are unlikely to be resolved within a baseline memorandum.

Allies deeply divided over strategic targets

The impending decision has exposed deep divisions among regional allies, with Trump describing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as highly torn over the current parameters.

Benjamin Netanyahu praised Donald Trump as Israel’s strongest ally in the White House (@WhiteHouse/X)
National security grids expose a sharp tactical divergence between regional partners seeking an armistice and Israeli planners advocating for an immediate resumption of air operations (@WhiteHouse/X)

While Trump rejected assertions that Netanyahu was worried about a potential soft deal, Israeli defense officials confirmed the prime minister remains highly concerned about the text under discussion and has explicitly urged the White House to launch a new wave of heavy strikes.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that regional mediators, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, have been scrambling to bridge the gaps between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoys. Rubio noted that while progress has been made, Washington's core demands remain unyielding.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets the press after the NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting in Helsingborg, Sweden, Friday, May 22, 2026. (Johan Nilsson/TT News Agency via AP)
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks had advanced, but the US remained firm on its key demands (Johan Nilsson/TT News Agency via AP)

The secretary of state clarified that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon, must completely surrender its enriched uranium, and must allow the Strait of Hormuz to be permanently reopened without any sovereign tolls.

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