Political expert predicts California could secede from US triggering civil war within next 10 years
SANTA BARBARA, CALIFORNIA: A political expert recently claimed that California could secede from the US, sparking a second civil war within the next 10 years.
Professor Benjamin Cohen from the University of California-Santa Barbara warned that the possibility of political polarization reaching a violent breaking point throughout the US was "substantially greater than zero."
Political expert says he worries about the risk of civil war as 'identity can be a very powerful motivator'
The political expert envisioned California declaring its independence from the US in 2035, amid growing friction with the federal government, which would prompt the next president to take drastic action.
In a fictitious news bulletin about a hypothetical scenario, Cohen wrote, "President [JD] Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento, backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states. Armed conflict looks increasingly possible."
Moreover, Cohen explained that there is a growing movement in so-called "dream states" to rally behind the causes some feel they belong to, instead of remaining part of the greater US family.
He said, "Identity can be a very powerful motivator. That's why I worry about the risk of civil war. When it comes to something as strong as a sense of community identity, rationalism falls by the wayside."
Meanwhile, a June 30 YouGov poll showed that Cohen's fears are shared by several Americans, as 40 percent believe that it's either "somewhat or very likely" that the US will have another civil war within 10 years.
Moreover, the same percentage believed that war would be fought between Democrats and Republicans, not between individual states.
Cohen said in a university release, "It's difficult for me to imagine how things would divide up if there were a civil war. But the probability of such a war is substantially greater than zero."
He also mentioned that the possibility of states deciding to secede from the US was an "underappreciated phenomenon." Seceding basically means a state or group of states deciding to leave the US to form an independent nation.
More and more Americans believe that the government is reaching a critical breaking point
The US Supreme Court has already ruled that it is illegal for states to secede without the consent of all other states in the union.
Moreover, the federal government would likely declare the action illegal and take measures to stop it, like in Cohen's nightmare scenario.
Meanwhile, studies show more and more Americans believe that the government is reaching a critical breaking point and may stop functioning as a democracy within the next 10 years.
Interestingly, the June 30 YouGov poll of 1,111 adult US citizens showed that around 31 percent think the US will become a fascist dictatorship by 2035. Another 20 percent think the US will turn communist by then.
Cohen added, "It seems to me we cannot ignore the risks of the current fissures and fragmentation — the breakdown of a sense of community."
Despite predicting that California would be the first state to break away from the US, the political economist added that dissatisfied Americans desire to redraw the geographic borders of the US to better fit their political ideologies.
In his book, 'Dream States: A Lurking Nightmare for the World Order', Cohen warned of an impending breakdown in society that could split states in half.
He explained, "We tend to simplify geography by looking exclusively at the existing lines on a map that separate one sovereign state from another."
Coher further warned in his book, "The reality is there are many people within those states that are very unhappy with the arrangement. They'd prefer to draw the lines in a different way. In some cases, they're prepared to fight to redraw those lines."
