CNN's Enten says Trump leads every 21st century president among seniors, boosting GOP midterm odds

ATLANTA, GEORGIA: A fresh breakdown of polling data suggests President Donald Trump is holding firm with one of the most reliable voting blocs in American politics - senior citizens, a trend that could significantly shape the 2026 midterm landscape.

The analysis, presented on CNN by Harry Enten on Thursday, April 16, highlights not just stability in Trump’s numbers but a comparative edge over past presidents at a similar stage in their tenure.

Trump holds ground with seniors

CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, pointed to Trump’s approval rating among voters aged 65 and above, noting that it has remained largely steady over time.

“In March of 2025, it was 46%. Look at where it is now. It's basically the same. He's at 44% now,” Enten said, emphasizing that there has been no meaningful erosion in support within this group.

That stability carries outsized political weight. Seniors are among the most consistent voters in US elections, often turning out in higher numbers than younger demographics.

Enten highlighted this dynamic, explaining that while much attention is given to younger voters, it is older Americans who frequently decide electoral outcomes.

What makes the data more striking is the historical comparison.

According to Enten, Trump is outperforming other recent presidents among seniors at the same point in their second terms.

“If you look at all the 21st-century second-term presidents, Trump actually has the best approval rating,” he said, noting that Barack Obama stood at 39% and George W Bush at 34% among seniors during comparable periods.

Trump's high approval rating could boost midterms

The numbers could have real implications for the upcoming midterm elections.

While Democrats have seen a slight edge in generic congressional preferences among seniors, Enten suggested the shift is not dramatic enough to signal a major realignment.

“Republicans look at this number, and think 'we can actually potentially do some real damage or at least hold our own in the midterms,'” he explained.

The relatively small movement among senior voters indicates that the GOP’s base remains intact, particularly in high-turnout demographics.

That resilience is especially relevant in key battlegrounds with older populations. 

Enten pointed to states like Florida, where seniors make up a significant share of the electorate.

Prediction models, he noted, currently give Republicans a strong chance of around 83% of holding onto a crucial Senate seat there.

Enten added, “Trump's approval is holding steady. It's a big reason the Dems taking back the Senate is not going to be easy.”